The last major mobile theme I noticed from MWC was web and local software. You know, content.
There's lots of evidence from all around the mobile industry. Opera Mini use increased 18% month-over-month in January. Orange’s SVP of personal communications services said, "We are very bullish on the mobile revenue model from the e-commerce perspective. "
The best information I've found is the Tellabs Nielsen survey on intended mobile data use. I was especially interested in the interest in use amongst non-users... nearly 50% of US non-users intend to use in the next 24 months. Obviously intended use is not the same as actual use, but this story is an interesting read.
Analysis Mason is bullish on advertising-supported mobile services. And the Mobile Entertainment Forum at MWC predicts an average revenue growth of 27% this year.
Customizing and Personalizing
Manufacturers and operators continue to slowly let go of control over the device idle screen. I think Windows Mobile may have done it first, by allowing manufacturers to have interactive skins, and technologies like Qualcomm's uiOne have certainly been around for a while. One operator is also working with Microsoft for customizing the Windows Mobile home screen. (Also note the comment that WinMob usability isn't good.)
Similarly, Yahoo is providing more personalization. According to FierceWireless, "Yahoo Mobile features an open environment giving consumers the latitude to create a customized user experience bringing together their favorite web content and services." Nice, and needed.
I think personalization for key, everyday experiences will be more popular on mobile phones than on desktop computers, as long as the customizations don't get erased over time. (For example, I am of the 4% who have customized anything on OpenOffice, but when I upgrade my changes are eliminated. Not encouraging.) Why will personalization be more popular on the phone?
- The phone is a fashion statement, part of your personality. This is an extension of the popularity of ring tones, wallpapers, skins, stickers, and more.
- The screen is small. I keep having to look at "music" on my phone (I use an iPod for that), and then have to dive deep to find Gmail. Let me put Gmail on my idle screen.
- I am unlikely to be sharing my device, so there's less penalty for customization.
- I live with this device all day, interacting with it dozens or hundreds of times. If I can save 15 seconds per interaction, I will.
Adding Functionality (software!)
The customers are spending: 16.5% of smartphone users spent between $100 and $499 in 2008.
What needs to happen to make a business model out of content in this environment?
Start with distribution. Figure out whether you'll have to rely on existing stores or decks, or you've got a great off-deck distribution model. Make sure you can thrive with the revenue models the stores provide. Select platforms accordingly.
Be sure your users are on the platforms you choose. Making a great S60 app won't help much for a U.S. user base.
Reduce price barriers. Until the various stores and devices enable previews and trial periods, users will be purchasing your application on faith. Even if we're talking about a web site rather than an app, many users won't be on unlimited data. $7 is expensive, 99¢ is essentially the same things as free.
Make sure your support model supports likely volumes. At 69¢ revenue per unit, a single support incident eliminates profits from as many as ten sales. Even more expensive applications can have their profits eaten away by support. Don't expect the operators to do this for you; their profits are eroded this way as well.
Design it right. Reduce the need for support in the first place. Oh, and improve brand perception at the same time. And stickiness.
App stores will help
App stores have finally come into their own. Everybody is launching a me-too effort, with Nokia's Ovi really breaking new ground (stuff I've been advising clients to do for about three years now, so this is exciting to me).
Everybody claims MWC theme were confuse this year. Maybe the crisis took an important space, but i agree app stores were a great trend, personalizing too… But is also a trend for internet as whole, isn’t it?
I think it’s unlikely for trends in one space to not be at least partially reflected in other spaces. So if there is a personalization trend for the Internet, this would make sense. But I don’t pay as much attention to non-mobile things … what trends are you seeing?